Looking Good: AIA Consensus Forecast Showing Good Numbers
Good news for reprographics: The recently released AIA Consensus Forecast predicts decent AEC industry growth across the board in 2013 and 2014. The AIA Consensus Forecast combines forecasts from seven separate AEC industry forecasts to create a composite number, so it’s one of the best predictors of AEC behavior.
The composite number for 2013 is 5 percent growth in non-residential construction in 2013, climbing to 7.2 percent growth in 2014. The best performers in the portfolio are hotel construction, estimated at 15.7 percent grown in 2013 and 12.6 percent growth in 2014, and retail construction, at 7.8 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively.
The weakest segment on the list is public safety, which is predicted to drop 1.7 percent in 2013 and climb only 0.8 percent in 2014. Education construction is not much better; it is predicted to grow 1.1 percent in 2013 and 4.5 percent in 2014.
This growth follows modest growth in 2012, which helped architecture firms recover from the doldrums of the past few years. Here’s an excerpt from the press release that accompanied the consensus report:
With stronger revenue overall in 2012, architecture firms have begun a recovery process. Fully half of firms nationally reported increases in gross revenue of at least 5 percent in 2012, while only 28 percent reported declines. The remaining 22 percent reported stable levels of revenue for the year. This level of revenue gain was enough to encourage some firms to add new staff. Nationally, architecture firms added approximately 2,500 payroll positions in 2012, the first year for payroll gains since 2007.
This year, architecture firms are expecting gross revenue to increase by about 3 percent on average. Almost half (45 percent) of firms are expecting revenue growth, 20 percent are projecting revenue declines, and 35 percent expect that revenue will be similar to 2012 levels. By specialization, residential firms are the most optimistic, expecting average revenue growth of 3.5 percent.
You can read the whole release, and see the numbers, here: http://www.aia.org/practicing/AIAB097351?dvid=&recspec=AIAB097351